Free FPL Tools: Clean Sheet Probability, Fixture Difficulty and More
GoalIQ is a free FPL assistant built on a match model with a published, pre-match-logged track record. This page gives clean sheet probability and fixture difficulty for every Premier League team, free and updated every gameweek. Rate my team, a captain pick and price watch are free too; GoalIQ Premium adds an interactive team manager with a gameweek planner, player expected points (xP), the captain ranker, player value, a DefCon tracker and transfer suggestions you can apply to your planned squad.
Free download. Predict any fixture yourself in the app.
The model plays FPL this season with its own public team. Think you can outdraft it? Join the Beat the Model mini-league with code jgi6j9. Season winner gets a year of GoalIQ Premium, free: one prize, decided by the mini-league table when the season ends.
The model publishes its prediction record
The GoalIQ model has logged 3152 pre-match predictions, before kickoff, with no edits afterwards, starting with the 2026 World Cup and now covering domestic leagues. Across the 149 completed matches, the model called the result correctly in 53% of matches. In the 102 matches that did not end in a draw, the model called the result right 77.5% of the time (79 of 102).
Source: GoalIQ prediction log, updated 15 August 2026. The full log, match by match with every miss included, is published on the prediction record page.
Team news right now
66 players are ruled out and 23 are doubtful for the next deadline, taken from the official Fantasy Premier League status feed. Most owned among them: Mukiele (SUN), Kroupi.Jr (BOU), Šeško (MUN).
The full list is free and sorted by ownership, and every doubtful player carries the model's projected points with the reduced chance of playing already priced in, so you can see what the doubt actually costs: FPL team news.
Gameweek 1 clean sheet probabilities
Model clean sheet probability for all 20 Premier League teams in Gameweek 1 (Friday 21 August 2026). FDR is GoalIQ's model fixture difficulty for that match, 1 easiest to 5 hardest.
| Team | Clean sheet % | Next opponent | FDR | Squad turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal6% turnover | 60.7% | Coventry (H) | 1 | 6% |
| Manchester City11% turnover | 37.3% | Bournemouth (H) | 1 | 11% |
| Nottingham Forest11% turnover | 36% | Leeds (H) | 2 | 11% |
| Everton10% turnover | 35.1% | Crystal Palace (H) | 2 | 10% |
| Brighton21% turnover | 34% | Aston Villa (H) | 2 | 21% |
| Manchester United7% turnover | 32.4% | Hull (A) | 2 | 7% |
| Brentford6% turnover | 32.4% | Tottenham (H) | 2 | 6% |
| Sunderland9% turnover | 31.6% | Ipswich (A) | 2 | 9% |
| Leeds13% turnover | 29.8% | Nottingham Forest (A) | 3 | 13% |
| Fulham22% turnover | 27.4% | Chelsea (H) | 3 | 22% |
| Ipswichbaseline rating | 23.6% | Sunderland (H) | 4 | baseline |
| Crystal Palace12% turnover | 23.1% | Everton (A) | 4 | 12% |
| Chelsea14% turnover | 22.6% | Fulham (A) | 4 | 14% |
| Aston Villa21% turnover | 21.7% | Brighton (A) | 4 | 21% |
| Newcastle United25% turnover | 19.3% | Liverpool (H) | 3 | 25% |
| Liverpool17% turnover | 18.1% | Newcastle United (A) | 4 | 17% |
| Tottenham14% turnover | 15.3% | Brentford (A) | 5 | 14% |
| Hullbaseline rating | 12.5% | Manchester United (H) | 5 | baseline |
| Bournemouth16% turnover | 10.8% | Manchester City (A) | 5 | 16% |
| Coventrybaseline rating | 6.4% | Arsenal (A) | 5 | baseline |
Pre-season projection: team strengths are fitted on 2025/26 and 2026/27 results, and newly promoted sides use an empirical promoted-team baseline measured from recent promoted seasons. The numbers sharpen as 2026/27 results arrive.
Fixture difficulty for the next six gameweeks
Clean sheet probability per team and gameweek. Each cell shows the opponent, venue and the model's clean sheet probability for that match, so two fixtures in the same FDR class no longer look identical. Easy runs stand out in gold and hard ones in coral; there is no colour wash behind the numbers, because the numbers are the point. Model FDR (1 easiest, 5 hardest) stays in the cell tooltip. Model-derived, not the official FPL difficulty.
Long-range fixture difficulty
Fixture difficulty only, based on today's ratings. Clean sheet % appears as each gameweek moves closer. Lower is easier. Each column averages the model's difficulty over six gameweeks, so what you are reading here is where the swings are, not a precise number for any single match.
| Team | GW7-12 | GW13-18 | GW19-24 | GW25-30 | GW31-36 | GW37-38 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Manchester City | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Manchester United | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| Brentford | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Bournemouth | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| Brighton | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| Liverpool | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| Aston Villa | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| Everton | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Fulham | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Chelsea | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Leeds | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| Sunderland | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 4.0 |
| Newcastle United | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Crystal Palace | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Tottenham | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Hull | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| Ipswich | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Coventry | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
Clean sheet scale: 10% 22% 34% 46% 58% (low CS% = hard fixture, high CS% = easy). H home, A away.
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Methodology
A Dixon-Coles style match model, tau corrected, trained on recent results. Clean sheet probability comes from the score matrix: the chance the opponent scores zero. Fixture difficulty is derived from win and clean sheet probabilities, ranked across every team fixture of the season and bucketed into five tiers. Fixture data comes from the official Premier League fantasy API, with premierleague.com as the fixture source until the FPL game opens for 2026/27.
More free FPL tools
Every page below is built from the same model that powers this one, and each one refreshes on the same schedule. No login, no paywall.
- Captain picks for the next deadline: every player ranked by expected points, not by last week's haul.
- The model's own XI: the squad our numbers would pick inside the budget, published before every deadline.
- Differentials under 10% ownership: where the model disagrees with the crowd.
- Price change watch: who is close to rising or falling tonight.
- xG, xA and xGI leaders: the underlying numbers behind the point returns.
- DefCon leaders: defensive contribution ranked under the current scoring rules.
- Player stats: shots, shots in the box, key passes, tackles and the rest of the raw numbers in one filterable table, per 90 or per start, with CSV export.
- Defence profiles: what each defence actually concedes, by pitch zone, plus headers faced and set-piece xG.
- Best player at every club: each club's leading goalkeeper, defender, midfielder and forward by projected points, with the gap to that club's second option.
- Team news: every player ruled out or doubtful, sorted by ownership, with what the model still projects a doubtful player to score over the horizon.
- Notes from the model: a short note each gameweek, only when the numbers say something worth saying, with every figure on a free page you can open.
- A page for every club, with its best players, who takes its penalties and corners, and a predicted XI: Arsenal, Liverpool, Bournemouth and the rest, linked from best player at every club.
About GoalIQ
GoalIQ is a free football prediction app built by an independent developer in Finland. The same model powers the app and this page. The methodology is public, and every published prediction is logged before kickoff so the record cannot be edited after the fact. If the model has a bad week, the log shows it.
FAQ
- Which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 1?
- On GoalIQ's model the top clean sheet chances in Gameweek 1 of the 2026/27 Premier League season are Arsenal at 60.7% (home against Coventry); Manchester City at 37.3% (home against Bournemouth); Nottingham Forest at 36% (home against Leeds). These are pre-season projections and will sharpen once 2026/27 results arrive.
- What is fixture difficulty rating (FDR)?
- GoalIQ's fixture difficulty rating comes from the match model's win and clean sheet probabilities, on a 1 to 5 scale. A lower number is an easier fixture. It is model-derived and independent of the official FPL fixture difficulty.
- Is GoalIQ good for FPL?
- Yes. GoalIQ is built FPL-first: clean sheet probability, fixture difficulty, rate my team with a captain pick, a fit checker that builds the best valid 15 around your must-have players, a pre-season draft rater (no team ID needed), price watch and the full xG/xA/xGI leaderboard for every player with data, a filterable player stats table with shots, shots in the box and key passes, are free, and GoalIQ Premium adds an interactive team manager with a gameweek planner, player expected points (xP), the captain ranker, chip timing for the best Wildcard, Bench Boost, Triple Captain and Free Hit windows, transfer plans that chain 1 to 2 moves with hits priced in, an edge mode with rank-aware picks for your mini-league, a player value ranking, a DefCon tracker, differentials and transfer suggestions you can apply to your planned squad. Every number comes from a match model with a published, pre-match-logged track record.
- What FPL tools does GoalIQ have?
- Free: clean sheet probabilities, fixture difficulty ratings (FDR), rate my team with a captain pick, a pre-season draft rater (pick 15, no team ID needed), the fit checker (lock must-have players, the model builds the best valid 15 around them), price watch, a season-long Beat the model scoreboard (log your calls before the deadline and they get graded against the model's every gameweek), the season race against the model's own squad, which is locked before every deadline and scored with official FPL points, and Catch your rival (how likely you are to close the gap to anyone in your mini-league with the gameweeks left), a watchlist for the players you are deciding on, the full xG/xA/xGI leaderboard for every player with data, a filterable player stats table with shots, shots in the box and key passes, the top three of the value and DefCon lists, and shareable image cards of the clean sheet outlook and price watch tables on the web. GoalIQ Premium: an interactive team manager (formations, bench swaps, captaincy, a GW1 to GW6 gameweek planner with each player's opponent per week), player expected points (xP), the captain ranker, transfer suggestions with one-tap apply to your planned squad, player value (xP per million) for the top 50 with position and team filters, showing the scoring rate per 90 minutes and expected minutes separately so a high rate on low minutes reads as a bench risk and not a bargain, a live DefCon panel that tracks your own squad against the threshold while a gameweek is being played (web), the full DefCon (defensive contribution) leaderboard, goalkeeper rotation pairs, differentials, a round-by-round breakdown of where the gap to the model came from (captaincy, bench points and autosubs) with a decision journal of the calls you made differently, the players that actually close the gap to your mini-league rival, player compare for up to four players and predicted starting minutes. Available on the web, iOS and Android.
- What is DefCon in FPL and does GoalIQ track it?
- DefCon (defensive contribution) is an FPL scoring rule: a defender earns 2 points with 10 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles in a match, and a midfielder or forward with 12 including ball recoveries. GoalIQ tracks every player's DefCon actions per game and hit rate, so you can find the most reliable DefCon point scorers. The top three are free and the full leaderboard is on GoalIQ Premium.
- Is GoalIQ free?
- Yes. Clean sheet probability and fixture difficulty are free, on the web and in the GoalIQ app for Android and iOS.
- How accurate is the GoalIQ model?
- The GoalIQ model has logged 3152 pre-match predictions, before kickoff, with no edits afterwards, starting with the 2026 World Cup and now covering domestic leagues. Across the 149 completed matches, the model called the result correctly in 53% of matches. In the 102 matches that did not end in a draw, the model called the result right 77.5% of the time (79 of 102). Every prediction is logged, hits and misses.
- Does GoalIQ give betting tips?
- No. GoalIQ publishes model predictions and analytics, not betting advice. It is not a gambling service and has no odds or bookmaker links.
- Is there a full xP dashboard on top of this free page?
- Yes. GoalIQ Premium at pro.goaliq.app adds player expected points (xP) for the coming gameweeks, a captain ranker and per-gameweek breakdowns, from the same match model as this page. 3.99 EUR per month or 25 EUR per year, and one account unlocks premium on the web, iOS and Android.
Disclaimer: GoalIQ provides model predictions and analytics. Not betting advice.