Football match predictions, from a model that shows its record

* Knockout matches level after 90 minutes are graded as a draw. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not count toward the result.

48 World Cup 2026 group-stage predictions are not counted here or in the rate above: they went into the log without a timestamp of their own, so the log can't show they were made before kick-off. They stay in the prediction log file, marked void with the reason NO_TIMESTAMP.

2569 further predictions are already logged and locked for upcoming matches; they are listed below and appear in the graded table once played.

Upcoming: logged, awaiting result (2569)

These predictions are logged before kickoff and graded after the match. Nothing is edited once logged; each row moves to the graded table above when the result is in.

How accurate are GoalIQ football predictions?

GoalIQ publishes its full prediction track record: every prediction in the record is logged before kick-off and graded against the final result afterwards, hits and misses included, with no edits. The current accuracy numbers are shown on this page and refreshed after every round, and the raw log is available as machine-readable JSON.

How does GoalIQ predict football matches?

GoalIQ uses a Dixon-Coles statistical model with the tau correction for low scores, time decay so recent matches count more, and shrinkage toward the league mean. For a league fixture it is fitted on that league's own results, last full season plus the current one as it plays, weighted on both goals and the xG those matches produced in the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1, and on goals alone elsewhere. A Champions League fixture uses one joint fit of domestic league results and UEFA club matches, on goals alone. For any fixture it estimates the win probability for each side and the draw, expected goals for both teams, and scoreline probabilities.

Is GoalIQ a betting app?

No. GoalIQ is an analytics tool, not a gambling service. It has no bookmaker links and gives no betting advice. Predictions are statistical estimates for fun, analysis and fantasy football planning.