World Cup 2026 Predictions: how our model did

The tournament is over: Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final. This page is the permanent recap of how GoalIQ's model did.

Tournament completed 19 July 2026 · Knockout matches level after 90 minutes are graded as a draw; extra time and penalty shootouts do not count toward the result.

World Cup 2026 is over. Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final. Our model had the final too close to call (Spain 35.8%, Argentina 32.2%), logged before kickoff. See the full record and this week's predictions: Full track record · This week's predictions · FPL tools for 2026/27

The final, as the model saw it

Before kickoff on 19 July 2026 the model's read on Spain v Argentina was Spain 35.8% · draw 32.0% · Argentina 32.2%. The call was logged publicly before the match and was not edited afterwards. Spain won 1-0 after extra time (Ferran Torres, 106th minute).

The full tournament record

62.5%
correct 1X2 results across 56 counted World Cup matches (35 of 56)
85.4%
accuracy in decisive matches (35 of 41 that did not end in a draw)

Knockout matches level after 90 minutes are graded as a draw; extra time and penalty shootouts do not count toward the result. Numbers update automatically from the same public log as the track record page. 48 group-stage predictions were added to the log without a timestamp, so they are marked void and not counted here.

The per-match record, hits and misses included, lives on the evergreen predictions page and keeps growing with domestic-league calls: see the full track record.

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How the model works

GoalIQ is powered by a Dixon-Coles statistical model, fitted on more than 2,000 international matches played since 2022 and weighted by competition. For any fixture it estimates the win / draw / win probability, the expected goals for each team, and scoreline probabilities. World Cup 2026 predictions were computed on a neutral-venue basis and refreshed as results came in during the tournament.

World Cup 2026 predictions: FAQ

Who won the World Cup 2026?
Spain won the World Cup 2026, beating Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final on 19 July 2026 (Ferran Torres, 106th minute).
What did GoalIQ's model predict for the final?
The model had it too close to call: 35.8% for Spain, 32.0% for the draw and 32.2% for Argentina, logged publicly before kickoff.
How accurate was the model at the World Cup 2026?
The accuracy numbers count only World Cup 2026 predictions with a logged timestamp from before kickoff. Group-stage predictions added to the log without one are marked void and left out. Knockout matches level after 90 minutes are graded as a draw; extra time and penalty shootouts do not count toward the result. The full per-match record, hits and misses included, is public on the track record page.
How does GoalIQ predict football matches?
GoalIQ uses a Dixon-Coles statistical model, fitted on more than 2,000 international matches played since 2022 and weighted by competition, so a friendly counts half of what a World Cup match does. It estimates win/draw/win probabilities, expected goals and scoreline probabilities. It is an informational analytics tool, not a betting service.
Is GoalIQ a betting app?
No. GoalIQ is an analytics and entertainment app that provides statistical model predictions for informational purposes only. It is not a betting or gambling service and does not provide betting tips or odds.
FPL tools for 2026/27 →
Important: GoalIQ provides statistical model predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not a betting or gambling service and does not provide betting tips or odds. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees.